Shangri-La Dialogue: Achieving Sustainable Security in the Asia-Pacific in a Changing World

Tang Yongsheng, Professor, National Security College, National Defense University

After a two-year hiatus affected by the epidemic, the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, with representatives from more than 40 countries exchanging dialogues around security and defence policies in the Asia-Pacific, will help add the necessary certainty to a regional situation of increased uncertainty. The current world changes are accelerating and evolving, and while the international security situation remains generally stable, internal tensions continue to increase, coupled with the spread of the epidemic, the security order is being tested and impacted, and security risks are on the rise. The US has strengthened its hegemonic shield and started to build a new security architecture while striving to maintain the original alliance system, leading to a continued rise in great power competition and a further tightening of the space for international security cooperation rather than an increase. The geopolitical game has triggered tensions and conflicts in some regions, harbouring a greater risk of losing control, while also breeding new divisive combinations. There are many deficiencies in international and regional security governance, the old order is loosening and failing, and new norms are difficult to establish. It is against this backdrop that enhancing communication and understanding through security dialogue can expand the space for regional security cooperation.

During the dialogue, State Councillor and Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and a number of defence ministers discussed the possibilities of strengthening bilateral and regional security and defence cooperation, and achieved positive results. On 10 June, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong met with Minister Wei Fenghe, and both sides jointly expressed their vision of strengthening the China-Singapore defence relationship. Many delegates at the dialogue also made positive explorations and reflections on expanding regional security cooperation. Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo highlighted the Asian-specific approach to solving security problems, respecting every major power respecting every country, working together to maintain regional security, and solving security challenges. In contrast, the United States still emphasises the construction of small circles and promotes the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy. The essence of the intention behind it lies in maintaining its own hegemonic system, seeking its own priority interests to the detriment of the overall and long-term interests of the regional countries. While the mainstream voice of Asia-Pacific countries is one of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, the United States advocates great power competition, creates military confrontation and tension, strengthens and expands military alliances, and exacerbates regional tensions. As for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's opening keynote speech, he stressed that "today's Ukraine may be tomorrow's East Asia", which can be described as an "early warning" with many of his own intentions to create topics and tensions in order to benefit from them.

Indeed, international relations have always needed to evolve, and there is a general growing need for more and more countries, both in the Asia-Pacific region and on a sub-global scale, to advance cooperation and enhance coordination. This was also a topic that received high priority in the interactive exchanges between delegates during the dialogue. The current instability in the security situation has greatly exacerbated the already existing imbalance between supply and demand in international security governance, such as the erosion of the authority of the United Nations, the increase in tensions due to narrow military alliances, and the rising risk of an arms race and military conflict. There is an urgent need to improve and build a more inclusive multilateral system to address this. In a pluralistic world, no country has sufficient resources to determine the fate of other countries and peoples. The democratisation of international relations should be the trend of the world's historical development, and the international community needs to strive to build an open and inclusive model of pluralistic governance in order to deal with increasingly complex and diverse security threats. International institution-building needs to adapt to the new requirements, and to address the problem of inadequate or deficient supply of international governance, the international community must build consensus and strive to find viable solutions.

As the world's changes unfold in depth, it is increasingly difficult for the international order formerly dominated by the US and the West to provide the international community with sufficient public security supplies and room for growth for stable development. Gone are the days of the past few centuries when a few Western countries came together to decide what happened in the world. The changing world requires active efforts by all countries to address transnational and global security risks and challenges through more effective international coordination and cooperation, in order to defuse and hedge against the huge shocks that uncertainty may bring. The United Nations and related regional cooperation organisations still have a huge role to play, but they need to be further adapted to the new situation and reformed as necessary. Some attempts are also making useful progress, such as security cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which is playing a more active role in Central Asia. The growing demand for security cooperation and security governance will promote the innovative development of international relations and the achievement of sustainable security in the region.

Developments in US-China relations are an important part of the regional security situation and even play a certain role in guiding the future of the region and the world to some extent. The future of US-China relations depends on both the strategic choices of the US and China, and is fundamentally embedded in the world's development trends. Strategic planning is about being on the right side of history. In today's context of increasingly complex and intertwined interests between countries, the zero-sum game of cooperation or confrontation is no longer appropriate, and too much emphasis on national priorities can harm both the world and oneself; the complex relationship of competition not masking cooperation and cooperation full of competition will be more manifest in world politics. No matter how powerful a country is, it must find its own niche in the changing world. Coordination and cooperation must be sought between China and the United States, and contradictions and conflicts must be restrained by coordination and cooperation.

In order to better achieve national and regional security, stability and prosperity, it is necessary to keep pace with the world's development and strategic thinking cannot remain in the old days, in the traditional strictures of colonial expansion, geopolitical rivalry and zero-sum games. China is firmly committed to the path of peaceful development and has repeatedly and publicly declared that it opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, will never claim hegemony and will never engage in expansion. China's choice of the path of peaceful development is in itself a kind of strategic self-awareness, which means that it sees the world's development as an opportunity for its own progress, while at the same time transforming its own development into a driving force for the world's progress. From this it can be understood that "China's taking the road of peaceful development is not diplomatic rhetoric, not expedient, not strategic ambiguity, but an organic unity of ideological self-confidence and practical self-awareness, a firm strategic choice and a solemn commitment." The path of peaceful development is an autonomous choice that respects the general trend of world development and is ultimately reflected in the innovation of national development models and governance mechanisms. China must not only properly deal with the various security challenges it faces in practical terms, but also make a leading contribution to the world in terms of theoretical concepts. International relations are a process of co-evolution, and the more the globalisation process encounters obstacles and difficulties, the more important it is to look further ahead, to use temporary difficulties as an opportunity for strategic adjustment, and to promote more positive strategic interaction between China and the world; China is now, and even more so in the future, an important force for peace and progress in maintaining international security and promoting world prosperity.

The future direction of change in the international system and its order is not entirely clear, and the game around international rules and institutional arrangements is bound to become more intense, so China needs to take on a more active responsibility. Today's transformation of the world order cannot be accomplished in a short period of time through war, as has happened repeatedly in the past, but rather through a longer process in which old and new factors coexist, while the influence of the old order gradually dissipates and the new order is gradually reconstructed. The status of countries is changing, their roles are changing and their influence is changing. Hegemony and power politics will not automatically leave the stage of history, while the idea of building a new order has not yet been fully confirmed and applied, and the interweaving of old and new orders, the coexistence of multiple rules and the prevalence of double standards may still be the norm in a certain period of time in the future. It is precisely for this reason that the strategic anxiety of some countries will tend to increase, which is also known as "strategic insecurity in turbulent times", which is why there is currently fierce competition among the major powers around the redistribution of power and interests, and even the emergence of anti-globalisation and anti-globalisation trends and policy shifts in some countries. The emergence of such a situation, however, precisely demonstrates the need for the international community to carry out effective reforms of the unreasonable and inadequate elements of the existing system. Only with greater inclusiveness and the necessary fairness can the development of the international order be guided towards sustainable and predictable development of international relations, which in turn will also be conducive to the co-evolution of nations. The world is in flux and there are many people who do not like uncertainty, but the international system is, after all, subject to constant evolution. If all actions fall within predetermined certainties, people will revel in all kinds of passions and all kinds of egoism without fear. If things are uncertain, then the future opens up to creativity, to possibility, and thus to a better world.

Rather, we need to accurately understand and adapt to the world's changing trends and create the conditions for more positive strategic interaction between China and the outside world, with a particular focus on innovating national development models and improving national governance capacity, so as to provide a strong guarantee for the country's long-term stability and provide a new impetus for eliminating regional security and global governance deficits. This will also allow for more effective cooperation, including the use of incremental interests to constructively develop relations with regional countries, and in so doing, hedge and defuse the tensions and pressures brought about by the imposition of competition from the US on China, and constantly expand its strategic initiative to make a greater contribution to regional security and prosperity and global governance.