[Philippines]Biden reinforces US-Philippines alliance: go all out without enough strength
Author: Xue Liang, PhD student, Institute of International Relations, Nanjing University
Machine translation from https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x7Ag5PHTXkBWiC9gFn-y9w
On 22 September 2022, US President Joseph Biden Jr. met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in New York to discuss the importance of strengthening the US-Philippine alliance. During the meeting, Biden reaffirmed "America's strong commitment to defend the Philippines", once again demonstrating the importance he attaches to the US-Philippine alliance and his expectations for its future. This paper assesses the Biden administration's important move to strengthen the US-Philippines alliance at three levels: strategic positioning and objectives, implementation in multiple areas, and the limits of strategic effectiveness.
The Biden Administration's Positioning of the Philippines' Strategic Importance
In the context of the "great power competition", the Biden administration sees the Philippines as the frontier in maintaining a "free and open Indo-Pacific" regional order, the key to safeguarding the "Indo-Pacific" regional security and alliance system and to competing for the "centre of geopolitical competition" in Southeast Asia.
In addition to defining the Philippines, along with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and other "treaty allies in the region" in the February 2022 US Indo-Pacific Strategy, as "the security foundation for the region's democratic and prosperous development", the Biden administration has recently defined the Philippines' strategic position in a number of ways particularly emphasising its significance to the national security of both countries, to military regional security, and to the strategic frontier in Southeast Asia: "A strong U.S.-Philippine alliance is essential to a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty is vital to the security of both countries" "The Philippines is of unique geostrategic importance important role in maintaining regional security in the South and West Pacific, including the first and second island chains, and it is in the Philippine and U.S. national interests to consolidate relations through agreements such as the Visiting Forces Agreement and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement""The Philippines' position in the first island chain is important to U.S. security and the integrity of the U.S. Indo-Pacific alliance system's integrity, and Japan and Taiwan could easily be pinned down if adversaries were able to coerce or easily penetrate the Philippine archipelago." "This strategic partner continues to be an important force for political stability, peace and economic development in Southeast Asia, which is becoming a centre of geopolitical competition."
As the Biden administration's policy towards Taiwan became increasingly "strategically clear," its strategic goal of seeking increased U.S. access to Philippine military facilities during Marcos Jr.'s tenure became clearer after receiving a commitment from the Philippine Duterte administration to "allow U.S. access to Philippine facilities if the conflict spills over into the Philippines. The strategic goal of increasing US access and use of Philippine military facilities has also become clearer. As such, "allowing the US to deploy troops and assets in the Philippines is important for it to deter Chinese expansion into the Western Pacific and to ensure deterrence capabilities against China in key maritime areas." Thus, "taking advantage of the election of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in May 2022, the United States should seek to reinvigorate this key alliance and put it on firmer footing."
A multifaceted approach to strengthen the alliance in a joint effort
Based on the above-mentioned strategic positioning, the Biden administration has focused on military, political, economic and other areas to achieve its strategic goal of revitalising the US-Philippines alliance and strengthening deterrence against China.
On the military front, the strengthening of the alliance has been carried out mainly through increasing arms sales to the Philippines, strengthening joint exercises and deepening military contacts. First, relying on Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and special funds such as the National Defence Authorisation Act, the US has in recent years sold the Philippines F-16C/D Block 70/72 aircraft, AIM-120C-7/C-8 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, Cessna 172 Skylark aircraft, and other advanced equipment, as well as raids on key ports. Advanced equipment, facilities such as assault boat docks and maintenance bays in key ports, and land-based mobile air defense and anti-ship systems projects to "enhance joint maritime domain awareness" and "support Philippine sovereignty and modernization efforts". The second is to invite Philippine naval, land and air forces to participate fully in the prestigious "Shoulder to Shoulder", "Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training", "Rim of the Pacific" and "Rim of Darkness" military exercises. The second is to invite the Philippine navy, army and air force to participate in the military exercises such as "Shoulder to Shoulder", "Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training", "Rim of the Pacific" and "Paint it Black" to enhance military interoperability. Third, in reaffirming the U.S. commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty "including armed attacks against the Armed Forces of the Philippines, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea," the U.S. has expanded political-military dialogue and consultations through bilateral strategic dialogues and ministerial-level "2+2" dialogues, among other mechanisms. The scope of consultations and practical cooperation with the Philippine Coast Guard under the joint Philippine-U.S. Marine Corps Integrated Readiness Program and the Pacific Deterrence Initiative are intended primarily to advance the implementation of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.
Politically, the strengthening of the alliance has been carried out mainly through the promotion of "mini-multilateral" diplomacy, endorsement of the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" and traction in the Philippines' internal affairs. First, based on the Japan-Philippines ministerial "2+2" meetings and the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), the traditional Australia-Philippines friendship and Australia's participation in the "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercises, the alliance has been built on the "US-Japan-Philippines "On 13 September 2022, the Philippines, Japan and the US also held their first trilateral defence policy dialogue. Second, in addition to repeated statements by the US Department of State, recent bills in the US Congress also support the outcome of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Third, the U.S. expects to continue to deepen its stable relationship with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and senior defense officials by supporting the government's efforts to build the "Autonomous Region of Muslim States Samoro" (BARMM) and reform the security sector, while shifting as much as possible the domestic needs of the AFP to address external "maritime security" and "Chinese challenges."
Economically, the U.S. has advanced U.S.-Philippine energy cooperation and attracted Philippine participation in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with new commitments to direct investment in the Philippines. On the one hand, following the launch of the USAID's Philippine Energy Security Project in June 2021 to deploy renewable technologies and mobilise private sector investment, the US continues to encourage the Philippines to independently develop hydrocarbon resources in the "Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone" (EEZ). At the same time, it has contributed to the Philippine National Energy Board's Clean Energy Demand Initiative, signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Civil Nuclear Strategic Cooperation, and assisted the Philippine Renewable Energy Corporation (Aboitiz Renewables, Inc.).
On the other hand, in advancing the implementation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the U.S. seeks to secure the Philippines' participation and support in all pillars, and focuses on promoting the Philippines' participation in renewable energy, green metals, the electric vehicle industry, digital standards and infrastructure, and cross-border privacy rules, while committing to continue to increase direct investment.
In addition, the Biden Administration continues to provide vaccines, technology, and facilities assistance to the Philippines in the area of public health security; coordinates U.S.-ASEAN security matters in the area of regional security in Southeast Asia; puts cybersecurity and space security on the bilateral cooperation agenda, and provides assistance to the Philippines in "space science, technology, and engineering" by bringing Starlink to the Philippines and signing a Memorandum of Understanding between the Philippine-American Education Foundation (PAEF) and the Philippine Space Agency. The Philippines' "space science, technology and engineering" assistance through initiatives such as the entry of Starlink into the Philippines and the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Philippine American Education Foundation (PAEF) and the Philippine Space Agency.
Limited effectiveness of the strategy due to multiple constraints
Even if the Biden administration promotes its strategic objectives towards the Philippines in multiple areas, its overall strategic implementation still faces key constraints such as its own strategic constraints and contradictions with the will of the Philippines, so the effectiveness of the strategy will also be greatly reduced.
On the one hand, the strategy is constrained by the "America First" approach, the values of "liberal democracy and human rights" and the independence of the legislature from the executive. "The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework has so far failed to provide the market access or quality trade agreements that Southeast Asian countries are looking for, and its vision of "excluding China" from parts of the supply chain is "not enough" in Southeast Asia. "High standards such as labour have only been "met" by the Philippines rather than implemented. More crucially, the US still holds to an "America First" approach that is led by a combination of voter support internally and competition with China externally, which makes its economic support to the Philippines more of a "transitional" initiative.
Moreover, the US Congressman set a "value" premise for US military aid to the Philippines, proposing in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 and related amendments that the US would "assess extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations by the Philippine military, police, and paramilitary forces ", "not provide State Department funding to the Philippine National Police until the administration demonstrates that the Philippine government meets basic human rights standards", and criticised the Marcos Jr. administration for "perpetuating a family dictatorship" The "disregard for human rights and corruption" and the "international criminal responsibility" of former President Duterte have led to clear opposition from the Philippine Senate, the Marcos Jr. team and himself. The relative restraint of the US executive on the issue of "human rights" in the Philippines contrasts with the continued insistence of the legislature.
On the other hand, there is also a contradiction between the Biden administration's strategic goals for the Philippines and the wishes of the Philippine government. Territorially, the Philippine government actively defends its rights in the so-called "West Philippine Sea" but stresses its "insistence on the peaceful settlement of disputes", not ignoring that its claim to defend "every square inch of Philippine territory It should not be overlooked that it claims to defend "every square inch of Philippine territory" against "any foreign power". Economically, the Philippines is at this stage greatly troubled by the impact of US monetary policy and the contradiction between the administration's primary commitment to rehabilitate the Philippine economy, its need for Chinese support in infrastructure development, and its dissatisfaction with US sanctions against Russia and Iran in terms of oil, gas and food imports. [16] Not to mention the fact that Marcos Jr. has made it clear that the Philippines does not accept the "war on drugs" and "extrajudicial killings" investigations from outside the country, does not agree with the "smear campaign" against his father and his rule by media supported by forces outside the country, and has no intention of immediately releasing the tightly wounded. "He also had no intention of immediately releasing the former opposition senator who was a staunch follower of the United States.
Somewhere in between is the Biden administration's ability to "push" key strategic objectives. The U.S. assesses that the Filipino people and the Philippine foreign policy, military establishment, and business sector have deep goodwill toward the United States, and that the more than four million Filipino Americans living in the United States, the nearly 300,000 U.S. citizens living in the Philippines, and the approximately 21,000 Filipino elites participating in U.S. government-sponsored humanistic exchange programs are a valuable strategic resource. The U.S. can build on this foundation by deepening its engagement with the Philippine defense and diplomatic community and local governments and communities to advance its key strategic objectives, particularly to allay concerns that "access to U.S. bases in the Philippine archipelago is not guaranteed in a U.S.-China crisis" and to focus on "regional contingencies. contingencies" and thus focus on necessary, forward-looking deployments to "regional contingencies".
In times of crisis, however, this strategic objective will inevitably be played against the current domestic and diplomatic quest for Filipino autonomy and unity by Philippine leaders, with Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte at the core of Philippine family politics. They have repeatedly stated that the Philippines cannot afford a further escalation of tensions in the region and have called for restraint and diplomatic solutions, while the Philippines will "carry out its mandate to protect the territorial integrity, sovereignty and sovereign rights of the country". It is clear that the Philippines' priorities are to strengthen itself and maintain its security, and its adherence to the fundamental line of "balance of power" will not be easily changed. The Biden administration's commitment to the "great power rivalry" will continue in this phase.