[China & SEA]"Marcos II coming to the Philippines
Yang Zerui, Director, Research Office, China National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation
In the Philippine general election held on 9 May, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. was elected as the 17th President of the Philippines and will begin his six-year term on 30 June.
Record-breaking win
The 2022 Philippine general election is a multi-level election for President, Vice President, Senators, Representatives, Provinces, Districts, Cities and Villages (Barangay) at the same time. According to the Philippine Electoral Agency, there are 178 caucuses, 10 presidential candidates, 9 vice presidential candidates and 64 senatorial candidates at the national level. The number of presidential and vice-presidential candidates is a new record in the history of Philippine elections.
Statistics show that Marcos Jr. received 31 million votes, or a whopping 58.7 percent. His partner, vice-presidential candidate Sarah Duterte, received 31.5 million votes, or 61.3 per cent.
It was a crushing and resounding victory. The number and percentage of votes for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates was a new record in the history of the Philippine election. In the 2016 election, President Duterte received 16.8 million votes and Marcos Jr. outspent him by 14.2 million! The icing on the cake was that the Philippine Electoral Office announced the day after the general election that all cases alleging that Marcos Jr. was ineligible to run had been dismissed and there were no more legal obstacles to his taking office.
Marcos Jr. won big amidst deliberate suppression by sections of the elite. Filipino society is more controversial about Marcos Jr. and his family, with lawsuits surrounding him since his candidacy. Marcos Jr's response has been low-key, having learned from his defeat as vice-president in 2016, taking a path of grief and calling for unity and cooperation. He has received support not only from many political parties but also from many of the major political families, notably the choice of Sara as his running mate, which has made the "marriage" between the Marcos family in the north and the Duterte family in the south a popular one nationally. At the same time, the Arroyo family, the Estrada family, the Vila family, which crosses the border with political enterprises, and the Enrile family in Cagayan, among other powerful families from all over the world, have joined his campaign.
Marcos Jr. is adept at using new media to build momentum, opening new media accounts such as Facebook and Twitter early on to directly address his supporters. On the contrary, he disdained programmes aimed at the elite, such as television debates, and refused interviews with prominent media personalities and presidential candidate debates organised by CNN, and even those organised by the Electoral Office.
The success of Marcos Jr's campaign strategy also indirectly proves the failure of his main rival, incumbent Vice President Robredo. Robredo, the most popular US presidential candidate, inherited President Aquino III's pro-US and anti-China ideology, saying outright that "if I am elected, I will fight China to the end", which naturally did not go down well with public opinion. The majority of the population agrees with President Duterte's general policy of economic development and friendship with China, and supports someone who can continue the Duterte line.
"The Marcos dynasty becomes the first family in politics again
Marcos Junior's father was Ferdinand Marcos, the 10th President of the Philippines, who was overthrown by the People Power Revolution in 1986 (hereinafter referred to as "Marcos", who served from 1965 to 1986).
The Marcos family originated in the province of Ilocó Norte (Northern I) in northern Luzon. Mariana Marcos Jr.'s grandfather, a well-known local lawyer and educator, was elected to the Philippine House of Representatives in 1925, starting his family's political career.
Born in Manila in September 1957, Marcos Jr. went overseas in 1970 on a family mission to attend the prestigious private Worth School in England, then St Edmund's College, Oxford, where he studied political science, philosophy and economics, and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania in 1979, before dropping out of Wharton in 1980 to return to politics. He was elected deputy governor of his home province of Northern Ireland at the age of 23.
In 1983, Marcos Jr. was elected governor of Ilocó Norte. However, in 1986, President Marcos was overthrown by the "people's power revolution" in the Philippines, and Marcos Jr. accompanied his parents to exile in the United States. After returning to the Philippines in 1991, young Marcos rejoined politics and successively served as a congressman, governor of Ilocó Norte Province, Senator and other positions, but his political achievements were controversial. In 2016, he ran for vice president as an independent candidate and lost to Robredo by a narrow margin.
In October 2021, Marcos Jr. became president of the Partido Federal de la Filipinas (PFP) and officially announced his candidacy for the 2022 presidential election. At the age of 64, this may be the last chance for Marcos Jr. to make his political career a success and for his mother Imelda to "see a second Marcos in her lifetime".
For more than 30 years, the Marcoses, together with their mother Imelda and sister Amy, have been regrouping, working together, spreading their wings and regaining the hearts and minds of the people to bring the Marcos family back to prominence. Imelda ran unsuccessfully for President in 1992 and 1998, but ran successfully for Congress several times, serving four terms. She served as a member of the House of Representatives from 1998 to 2007, as Governor of Ilocó Norte from 2010 to 2019 and as a Senator in 2019.
In this election, Marcos Jr's eldest son, Sandro, was elected as Congressman for the 1st District of N.I., his cousin Angelo was elected as Congressman for the 2nd District of N.I., his nephew Matthew was elected as Governor of N.I., and his sister Amy is already a Senator in Congress, making the "Marcos dynasty" the first family in Philippine politics once again.
Three major internal and external challenges to be solved
The incoming Marcos Junior faces three major challenges: firstly, to heal the rift caused by the elections, to appease the victims of the Marcos era and those who opposed the Marcos family, and to achieve national unity; secondly, to restore economic growth, improve people's livelihoods and deal with the pressure of high debt in the fight against the epidemic; and thirdly, to adopt an appropriate foreign policy in the face of the increasingly concrete "Indo-Pacific strategy" of the US. The third is to adopt an appropriate foreign policy, especially towards the US and China, in the face of the increasingly concrete Indo-Pacific strategy of the US.
Since his election campaign, Marcos has made several statements on domestic and foreign affairs, generally speaking in a moderate manner.
He pledged to bring unity to the country, arguing that "this is the solution to the country's ills"; stressed that efforts would be made to combat corruption, strengthen the government system, balance power, balance the budget and work plans, and eliminate irregularities; stressed that the fight against the epidemic remained a top priority, ensuring that as many people as possible were vaccinated, and gradually restoring jobs and the economy; agreed to prioritise job creation, focus on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, strengthen and improve agriculture, improve tourism, and strengthen infrastructure, especially digital infrastructure and internet services; agreed to publish the balance sheet (SALN), which he had been opposed to publishing. He also stressed that the fight against the epidemic remains a priority, ensuring that as many people as possible are vaccinated and gradually restoring jobs and the economy; prioritised job creation, focusing on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, strengthening and improving agriculture, improving tourism and strengthening infrastructure, especially digital infrastructure and internet services; agreed to publish the "balance sheet" (SALN), which he had been opposed to, claiming that if elected he would make it available to the public as requested.
He stressed that the Philippines is in a geopolitical hotspot and cannot be part of the foreign policy of other countries, but must find its own course, must have its own foreign policy and must walk a tightrope between the great powers.
Understanding the importance of both China and the United States, Marcos Jr. stressed that the special relationship with the United States must not be taken lightly and also stressed the need to engage with China and not go to war with it. He said he was not working for Beijing or Washington, but for the Philippines, working in the interests of his country; that the South China Sea issue must be resolved in a peaceful manner; that economic cooperation with China must be strengthened in order to continue Duterte's "Build Build Build" programme and the Philippine economy; that the issue of joint US-Philippine military training should be approached with caution; and that he would not participate in any mechanism in the region that would attempt to encircle China. The Philippines should also be cautious about joint US-Philippine military training; refrain from participating in any mechanism in the region that seeks to encircle China, particularly the Quadruple Alliance (QUAD).
Marcos Jr. has deep ties with China, having made his first visit to China with his mother in September 1974 and leading a visit by young Filipino leaders to China in 1985 when he was governor of the province of Ilocó Norte. He has visited China several times since then and is considered to be the most friendly candidate to China.
But the international community is not only concerned about Marcos Jr.'s internal and external policies, but also about the future of Philippine democracy once he is in power. The New York Times article "Dictator's son Marcos Jr. to be president, future of Philippine democracy uncertain" reflects the fears of a "Marcos II" administration.