[ASIA]US-China competition: as winter approaches, China needs to pay more attention to its peripheral security
Author: Zhao Minghao, Researcher, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University; Contributing Expert, Centre for Strategic and Security Studies, Tsinghua University; Contributing Expert, China Forum
Translated from https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aIM-zuQ0_fEqlAOx8vGs2A
Recently, Indonesia and Thailand successfully hosted the G20 Summit and APEC Leaders' Meeting respectively, making for a remarkable "Asian moment" in global governance. However, the peaceful development of the Asia-Pacific region also faces a number of outstanding challenges. The pressure to maintain stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing under the influence of multiple factors such as competition among major powers, geopolitical conflicts and counter-globalisation.
As China is located in the Asia-Pacific region, it is crucial for China to build a good strategic environment for its neighbourhood. Against the backdrop of the prolonged crisis in Ukraine, the security situation in China's neighbourhood has taken a negative turn that warrants serious attention.
Increased geopolitical impact on Asia-Pacific economies
In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole has achieved rapid development, and its contribution to global economic growth has exceeded 60%. Taking into account factors such as total population, level of technological development and cultural diversity, the Asia-Pacific region is occupying an increasingly important position in the world's economic, political and security landscape.
According to a study released by the Boao Forum for Asia, Asia's economic growth rebounded strongly in 2021, with Asian economies growing at a weighted real GDP rate of 6.3% and increasing their share of the world economy to 47.4%, making them the most important engine of global economic growth. However, at present and in the period ahead, the potential for a world recession has intensified, and challenges such as global food security, energy security and debt problems are becoming increasingly apparent. Against this backdrop, economic development in the Asia-Pacific region is also facing a number of shocks. In its regional outlook report released in October 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its growth projections for the Asia-Pacific region to 4% and 4.3% for this year and next year respectively, far below the average growth rate of 5.5% over the past 20 years.
China is still a developing country and its future development requires a stable and prosperous Asia-Pacific. With a GDP per capita of just over US$12,000, China ranks in the 60s of the world and still ranks in the 70s in the Human Development Index. Clearly, it remains a very difficult task for China to advance its own modernisation.
The United States and other countries are preaching that "economic security is national security" and promoting decoupling initiatives against China in an attempt to reduce economic dependence on China. The epidemic has further exacerbated this trend. In addition, the US proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) could have an impact on existing regional economic integration arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP). All of these factors could undermine China's economic and trade relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
There is no doubt that geopolitical considerations are having an increasingly negative impact on the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region and that there is a growing trend towards a "pan-securitisation" of economic relations between countries. For example, the Japanese government attaches great importance to "economic security", and in May this year the Japan Parliament passed the Economic Security Promotion Act, which reflects the importance attached to issues such as supply chain security, critical infrastructure security and the protection of technological advantages. Following the "2+2" mechanism of Foreign Minister + Defence Minister, Japan and the US have also established the Economic Policy Consultative Council (EPCC), chaired by ministerial officials from both sides responsible for economic and foreign affairs, with the aim of strengthening Japan-US coordination on supply chain resilience, export controls, anti-coercion and the digital economy.
South Korea, another key economic partner of China in the Asia-Pacific region, has further integrated geopolitical considerations into its economic and trade relations. 24% of South Korea's total trade with China in 2021, and 60% of South Korea's exports of semiconductors and most of its chemical and machinery products go to China. However, South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol government has been strong in its China policy, proposing a "comprehensive global strategic alliance" with the US, of which the "economic security alliance" and the "technological security alliance" are important elements. The "economic security alliance" and "technological security alliance" are important elements. Under the impetus of the Biden administration, South Korea's Samsung Electronics announced a US$17 billion investment in the US state of Texas to build a new chip factory. South Korea has also been drawn into the so-called "chip quadrilateral" mechanism by the US, and the US and South Korea will also start a working group mechanism for supply chain and commercial dialogue (SCCD).
The joint statement on the US-Japan-ROK trilateral partnership released on 13 November states that it will launch a "US-Japan-ROK Economic Security Dialogue", strengthen cooperation on critical and emerging technologies, protect critical infrastructure, and enhance the resilience and diversification of critical mineral supply chains. The joint statement was released in November.
The security situation in Northeast Asia is worrying
The Biden administration's National Security Strategy report, released in October 2022, described China as "the greatest geopolitical challenge" and highlighted the next decade as a "decisive decade" for the US and China to compete. The U.S. has falsely claimed that China wants to establish a "sphere of influence" in the "Indo-Pacific" region, portraying China as a regional security threat, and some regional countries, such as Japan, have also portrayed China as a challenge to the Asia-Pacific order.
Through the so-called "Indo-Pacific Strategy", the US has provoked regional confrontation, created confrontation between camps, and used the strategy of "tying up China and Russia" after the Ukraine crisis to push up the perception of the "China threat" among Asia-Pacific countries. The "China threat" is perceived by countries in the Asia Pacific region. In order to create a so-called "position of strength" against China, the Biden administration has sought to build a "strong and mutually reinforcing network of alliances" in the "Indo-Pacific" region, bringing together US treaty allies and security partners such as India. The Biden administration has sought to build a "strong and mutually reinforcing network of alliances" in the Indo-Pacific region, bringing together US treaty allies and security partners such as India to create a multi-layered system of alliances to further enhance its strategic advantage over China with what it calls "collective strength".
Significantly, the Biden administration has also suggested that the crisis in Ukraine has shown that the collapse of the international order in one region will eventually put the order in other regions in jeopardy. The US hopes that its European allies can play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific region, and also attaches importance to promoting deeper cooperation between Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other Indo-Pacific allies with the EU and the UK, so as to jointly deal with competition with China.
In terms of China's neighbourhood security environment, the changes in the direction of Northeast Asia deserve great attention. Japan has tried to use this Ukrainian crisis to inflate tensions and advance its own security policy agenda. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called Russia a "war crime" and has decided not only to follow the US in imposing severe sanctions on Russia, but also to preach internationally that "today's Ukraine is tomorrow's East Asia". The Japanese government plans to increase Japan's military budget to more than six trillion yen (US$43 billion) in fiscal year 2023, raising it to more than 1% of GDP, and to increase military spending to ten trillion yen (US$72 billion) and 2% of GDP within five years.
The Biden administration supports Japan's expansion of military spending and the development of "offensive military capabilities", particularly space warfare, cyber warfare and electromagnetic warfare. The US has helped Japan to strengthen the defence of the southwest islands, expand US military bases in Japan, increase the deployment of advanced weapons such as F-35s in Japan, and send more Aegis missile destroyers to Japan. The U.S. and Japanese forces are also increasing their exercises around new operational concepts such as Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO).
In addition, Japan's military-security relations with Australia, India and the Philippines have also been escalating, and Japan's role as a "conduit" in security affairs in the Asia-Pacific region has become more apparent. The agreement allows the two countries' militaries to visit each other's countries for training and exchange of defence equipment in order to enhance synergy. In April 2022, Japan and the Philippines held their first "2+2" meeting of foreign ministers and defence ministers, and Japan and the Philippines also began discussions on signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement. The signing of the Reciprocal Access Agreement.
After Biden took office, the US-South Korea alliance was repaired and South Korea's "distancing from China and relying on the US" became more pronounced. The two sides have attempted to further expand the scope of the US-ROK alliance's military operations and even develop a joint US-ROK campaign against China around a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The US wants to increase the deployment of land-based medium-range missiles in South Korea and push for greater South Korean involvement in the South China Sea and other matters.
In September, the US and South Korea held a meeting of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Working Group in Washington, D.C. The two sides plan to increase deterrence against North Korea and other countries by sending additional strategic bombers that can carry nuclear warheads. In addition, the tripartite military cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea is particularly alarming. In early October, the US, Japan and South Korea held joint anti-missile drills. The South Korean version of the Indo-Pacific Strategy recently announced by the Yoon Suk-yeol administration also re-emphasises the need to strengthen trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the US and Japan.
US accelerates its security presence in Southeast Asia
In May 2022, the Biden administration hosted a special US-ASEAN summit, which proposed that the US would invest US$150 million in expanding bilateral cooperation, including US$60 million for projects related to the maritime security sector.
In Southeast Asia, the warming of US-Philippine relations deserves great attention. Dan Blumenthal, a former senior official in the US Department of Defense and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), believes that the Philippines is critical to the US deterrence alliance with China due to its geographic location, and that despite President Marcos Jr.'s historical entanglements with the US, there is still an opportunity for the US to improve relations with the Philippines, which has significant needs for the US in the South China Sea and on security issues.
The Biden administration has used the opportunity of the Philippines' domestic political changes to urge the Philippines to adjust its policy towards China, enhance the US-Philippine military alliance and increase the US-Philippine mutual response on the South China Sea. Recently, US Vice President Harris visited the Philippines and made a special trip to Palawan, the country's western island, to demonstrate the Biden administration's support for the Philippines on the South China Sea dispute. Harris reiterated that the United States would assist the Philippines in the event of an attack on the country in accordance with the mutual defense treaty signed between the United States and the Philippines in 1951, covering the geographical area of the South China Sea.
In recent years, the US government has provided the Philippines with a large number of weapons and equipment, including P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft, Standard-3 missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The US is also pushing ahead with the strengthening of Philippine military bases to enable "more effective operationalisation" of US-Philippine alliance priorities. The US has significantly increased the number and frequency of joint military exercises, training, and ship and aircraft visits in the Philippines. In April this year, the US and the Philippines held the largest joint exercise in their history, "Shoulder to Shoulder", with more than 9,000 troops from both sides, extending from northern Luzon to the waters of Palawan.
The Philippine government has suspended talks with China over the South China Sea and supports the US-UK-Australia Security Partnership (AUKUS), which aims to strengthen military deterrence against China. The US has placed emphasis on increasing support for the Philippine Coast Guard, providing advanced patrol vessels and maritime law enforcement equipment. The US is also sharing more maritime security intelligence with the Philippines through programmes such as the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness Partnership (IPMDA), which will enhance the deterrence capabilities of Philippine weapons such as anti-ship missiles.
The Biden administration is also stepping up its efforts to deepen relations with Indonesia and Vietnam, and to promote interaction between the US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Mechanism (QUAD) and ASEAN. In a recent meeting between US Defence Secretary Austin and Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, Austin said he would increase support for Indonesia's military modernisation, including providing the latter with F-15 fighter jets and improving interoperability between the two militaries. In August, the US and Indonesia held the "Goludashield 2022" exercise, in which 14 countries, including the UK, Australia, Japan, Malaysia and Canada, contributed military personnel. In addition, the United States and Indonesia are jointly building a joint strategic maritime centre on Batam Island, which is located in the Straits of Malacca, and will expand the Batam Island airfield to accommodate all major types of US warplanes.
Vietnam is seen by the US as a key counterweight to China, and the US has sought to help Vietnam enhance its "anti-access/area denial" capabilities against China. In March 2018, the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group visited Danang, the first visit by a US aircraft carrier to Vietnam since the end of the Vietnam War and a symbol of the deepening US-Vietnam security relationship. Between 2016 and 2019, the US Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programme is providing US$150 million in security assistance to Vietnam.
The Biden administration wants to upgrade the US-Vietnam relationship to a "strategic partnership". In June 2022, US Defence Secretary Austin told the Shangri-La Dialogue that "we are taking our defence cooperation with Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam to a new level". The US and Vietnam cooperate in areas such as military medical training, humanitarian assistance, disaster assistance, peacekeeping, information sharing, counter-terrorism, maintaining cyber security and water security. The U.S. has also focused on strengthening the Coast Guard Partnership between the two countries, providing Vietnam with Hamilton-class patrol boats, drones and other equipment, and helping train Vietnamese personnel to enhance Vietnam's maritime countermeasure capabilities.