A Comprehensive And Dialectical View Of The Current Economic Situation
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic situation has been grim and complex. Especially after March, downward pressure has increased sharply. Both at home and abroad are worried, and negative pessimism has suddenly arisen. On the occasion of the State Council's teleconference on stabilizing the national economy with 100K people, Economic Daily, the central media focusing on the economy, released the editorial "A Comprehensive And Dialectical View Of The Current Economic Situation", which was reprinted by Xinhua news agency, People's Daily, Guangming Daily and other central media. With the support of some government departments, the article expounds the severe challenges and favorable conditions facing China's economy from multiple aspects and dimensions, does not avoid contradictions nor dilute problems, and analyzes the deep-seated causes of the existing problems. Unlike many articles that analyze China's economy from a single micro perspective, "comprehensive and dialectical" is the feature of this article, which is conducive to readers' understanding of the overall picture of China's economy and boosting confidence is the main thrust of the article definitely. The full text is machinetranslation as follows:
Editorial:
Scientifically judging the situation, making use of trends, giving full play to advantages and leading the situation are important prerequisites and guarantees for doing a good job in economic work, and are crucial to the management of economic development expectations.
Since March this year, the complex evolution of the international situation, the ups and downs of the COVID-19 and other unexpected factors have superimposed, which has had a great impact on China's economy with good recovery momentum, and the downward pressure has attracted much attention. It not only contains the development view, but also emphasizes the methodology, which is of great guiding significance for us to scientifically judge the situation, comprehensively grasp the overall situation, strengthen confidence, overcome difficulties and achieve high-quality economic development.
Those who are good at planning goes far, and those who are practical will succeed. We should not only scientifically and rationally understand the current economic situation, grasp and respond well to the impact of short-term fluctuations, face up to and solve difficult pressures, but also understand the internal laws and general trends of China's economy from a longer period of time, grasp the potential, toughness, confidence and stamina of China's economy, so as to maintain concentration and positive response, calmly deepen reform in an all-round way, promote all-round opening up, and unswervingly do our own thing, Firmly grasp the initiative of development.
The toughness remains the same
Foreign investment is a weathervane. In recent years, despite the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, some foreign-funded enterprises have begun to diversify their layout, but the pace of investment in China has not slowed down. After the actual use of foreign capital exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time in 2021, China's attraction of foreign capital continued to rise. From January to April this year, the actual use of foreign capital reached 478.61 billion yuan, an increase of 20.5% year-on-year. According to the reports of the German Chamber of Commerce in China and the American Chamber of Commerce in China, more than 70% of German funded enterprises and more than 60% of American funded enterprises plan to increase their investment in China, and many well-known multinational companies increase their deployment in China around low-carbon business.
Mature investments often seek long-term and stable returns. As far as the Chinese market is concerned, the "long-term" is reflected in that no matter how the international situation changes, China will not change its determination to expand high-level opening-up and its willingness to provide more market opportunities, investment opportunities and growth opportunities for the world; "Stability" is reflected in the fact that China's complete industrial system, perfect infrastructure and super large-scale market still have strong attraction. The "increase" of foreign investment is a real "praise" for China's market potential and economic prospects.
Through the window of foreign investment, we have seen medium - and long-term expectations and confidence, and we should also face up to the current pressures and difficulties. To take advantage of the situation, we need to look at the steady recovery of the national economy from January to February this year separately from the situation since March. Otherwise, it may interfere with our judgment and grasp of the real situation, change trends, opportunities and challenges of economic operation.
In the first two months of this year, China's industrial production accelerated, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry grew well; The service industry continued to recover, and the production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than that in December last year; The employment situation was generally stable, with 1.63 million new urban jobs; The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, 5.0 percentage points faster than that in December last year; The role of investment was outstanding. The investment in fixed assets was 5076.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, 7.3 percentage points faster than that in 2021; Foreign trade grew steadily, with a total import and export of goods of 6204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%... The economy recovered to a good momentum, laying a solid foundation for a good start in the first quarter.
Since March, especially April, some economic indicators have weakened, which is a short-term change caused by the impact of the epidemic and a periodic fluctuation affected by external factors. However, in the face of new downward pressure and more severe challenges, China's economy still shows strong resilience.
——With a view to ensuring supply, the basic industries are strongly supported. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's grain, energy and other basic industries maintained growth, providing strong support for combating the epidemic and promoting economic recovery. From the perspective of agriculture, winter wheat seedlings continue to improve, the preparation for spring sowing is progressing smoothly, the progress is faster than the same period last year, the summer harvest is beginning to sickle, and a bumper harvest is in sight. In terms of energy, the added value of coal mining and washing industry increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and that of oil and natural gas mining industry increased by 7.2%. All these are conducive to ensuring the normal operation of production and life.
——With a view to stabilizing prices, the production and sales of basic commodities continued to grow. In April, the added value of food manufacturing above Designated Size, wine and beverage manufacturing and refined tea manufacturing increased by 0.1% and 0.5% respectively year-on-year; The output of fresh frozen meat and quick-frozen food increased by 20.4% and 9.3% respectively. All these are conducive to meeting the basic living needs of residents.
——With a view of the structure, the role of domestic demand as the main engine is still prominent. On the one hand, consumption is still recovering. Although the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year in April, e-commerce and online retail sales maintained growth. From January to April, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.2% year-on-year, accounting for an increase in the proportion of retail sales of social consumer goods. On the other hand, investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 12.2%, the fastest growing of all investment. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment increased by 6.5%. All this means that investment will also play an important supporting role.
——With a view of the new momentum, the new industry, new business form and new model demonstrate their resilience. In April, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, better than that of all industries. From January to April, the investment in high-tech industries increased by 22% year-on-year, better than the total investment.
Figures and facts are the most persuasive. Despite the thousands of trials and tribulations, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth remain solid. This is why the New York Times published an article saying that "China's development has been and is an important driving force for the globalization of trade and investment".
Stability is the most important and seek progress in stability
Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has been making breakthroughs, accelerating growth and creating miracles in various difficulties, pressures, problems and challenges.
Looking back at the economic situation after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is found that the world economy continues to be depressed after the international financial crisis externally, and the "three periods" of shifting growth rate, painful structural adjustment and digestion of early stimulus policies internally are superimposed. The structural and institutional contradictions of the economy continue to accumulate, and the traditional development model is difficult to sustain.
Looking at China's economy over the past 10 years: the balance, coordination and sustainability of development have been significantly enhanced. The GDP has increased from nearly 52 trillion yuan to more than 114 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP has increased from US $6100 to more than US $12000. China's economic strength, scientific and technological strength and comprehensive strength have leapt to a new level and embarked on a higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer development path.
Last 10 years, run through among them is "seeking progress in stability" the general tone of the work. Guided by the new development concept, with high-quality development as the theme, with supply side structural reform as the main line, we have improved macroeconomic governance, built a modern economic system, promoted self-reliance in science and technology, grasped the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, and fought three major battles... We have created conditions for deepening reform and opening up with a stable and good economic environment, and promoted the orderly transformation of development momentum through deepening reform and opening up, Achieve sustained and stable economic growth.
It has achieved remarkable results by taking the lead in stabilizing the character and gaining momentum in the process. The central economic work conference held in December 2016 clearly put forward that "the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability is an important principle of governing the country and a methodology for doing a good job in economic work". This is our party's accurate grasp of the general trend and objective laws of development, a new summary of our party's experience in leading economic work, and a demonstration of strategic determination, courage and wisdom.
We should strive for progress while maintaining stability. This requirement is the general tone, whether in the face of the storm of anti-globalization, or the severe test of the COVID-19, whether in solving the old problems accumulated in the process of rapid development, or in the process of transformation and upgrading. In accordance with this methodology, we have remained determined, calmly responded, steadfastly and steadily, achieved the first Centennial goal as scheduled, and made great strides towards the new journey of modernization. The long chant of "the common people are too hard-working. They should have a little peace" has become a reality in the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Focusing on the current economic work, we need to uphold the requirements of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and weigh the weight of "stability first".
This weight lies in the current superposition of China's economic pressures: it is more difficult to stabilize growth, the situation of stabilizing employment is grim, and the pressure on stabilizing prices is rising. Faced with a variety of intertwined problems, development is like sailing against the current. We must rise to the difficulties, work hard and make progress, and play a greater policy effect in stabilizing the economy and helping enterprises to bail out.
This weight also lies in that the economic and social development during the "fourteenth five year plan" period should focus on promoting high-quality development. High-quality development is the development with enhanced macroeconomic stability. Especially under the condition that the global economy is full of uncertainty, macroeconomic stability has become a scarce and valuable resource. Whoever can keep the overall economic stability will be able to overcome the impact of the epidemic, stabilize the bottom line of people's livelihood and take the lead in the new round of growth.
Taking the overall situation into consideration and stability above all else; while making progress while maintaining stability. The more complicated the situation is, the more we should adhere to the principle of "stability first and make progress while maintaining stability".
Strengthen strength and combine far and near
People must have resource to achieve great things
China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, while some new adverse factors are increasing and evolving, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the economic development environment are rising, which inevitably leads to anxiety in the society. In this regard, on the one hand, we should face up to all kinds of difficulties, pressures and challenges, so as to make clear the crux and know well; On the other hand, we must see the overall situation. China is still the world's second largest economy, with wide room for manoeuvre and a large-scale market. The long-term positive hard chassis will not change. Although pressure and difficulties exist objectively, we have the foundation and strength to "stabilize", the motivation and space to "advance", and the firm confidence and strong ability to resist risks and overcome challenges.
——A series of infrastructure renovation and upgrading contain huge business opportunities.
Today, China is a large economic country with increasingly perfect infrastructure, and the scale effect, spatial allocation effect, structure effect and social welfare effect are constantly emerging.
China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, and there is still great potential for investment. The construction of 102 major projects in the "fourteenth five year plan" is being accelerated. More than 2600 projects have been implemented in an orderly manner. 71000 special debt projects have been reserved in various regions. The annual investment in water conservancy projects and projects is about 800billion yuan... These projects have great development opportunities.
——The huge consumption capacity released by the super large-scale market contains infinite opportunities.
Today, China is a large economic country with a per capita GDP of more than 12000 US dollars, a middle-income group of more than 400million people and a total number of market players of more than 150million households.
Affected by the epidemic this spring, some consumption has been suppressed, but the demand has not disappeared. The transformation and upgrading of traditional consumption, the release of new consumption potential, and the strong "blood supplement" of online consumption. As the world's second largest consumer market and the largest goods trading country, China is still the key hub of the world economic cycle, with unlimited market opportunities. "Cultivate new consumption, develop information consumption, digital consumption and green consumption, and encourage the development of new modes and new business forms such as customization, experience, intelligence and fashion consumption"... The "fourteenth five year plan" and the long-term goal outline for 2035 outline an attractive prospect for this big market.
No one wants to miss such a big market. Preparations for the 5th China International Import Expo are progressing smoothly. The contracted area of exhibitors exceeds 70% of the planned area of the exhibition area. There are more than 240 world top 500 and industry leading enterprises. Most of the world's top 10 enterprises in the pharmaceutical, medical devices, automobile and other industries have signed contracts to participate in the Expo. Many overseas exhibitors expressed the hope to continue to cultivate the Chinese market and achieve greater development.
——The complete industrial system and complete industrial chain contain strong toughness and advantages of pressure resistance and impact resistance.
Today, China has a complete and independent industrial system. It is an economic power with the largest industrial economy in the world.
The vast land of China can produce daily necessities such as needles, thread, as well as large-scale heavy equipment such as aircraft carriers and aircraft. This independent and complete industrial system, although the problem of "from big to strong" remains to be solved, has consolidated the material foundation for modernization and is more significant in national development security. In addition, over the years, we have unswervingly integrated into the global industrial division system. The advanced manufacturing industry has steadily moved towards the middle and high end. Enterprises in various industries are deeply embedded in the global industrial chain. They are often very resilient in coping with the impact and mitigating the pressure. China's economy has more room for adjustment.
Since last year, a package of policies has been put in place to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial chain supply chain. A number of fast-growing "specialized, special and new" small and medium-sized enterprises have become important cornerstones to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain. At the same time, the layout of emerging industrial chains is also being further strengthened around key areas such as artificial intelligence and new materials. The increasingly stable and competitive industrial chain supply chain has provided important support for holding the basic position of "stability" and creating new momentum of "progress".
——The potential energy of a large country with talent resources has gradually emerged, providing a solid support for the competition in the main economic battlefield.
Today, China is a large economic country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, a workforce of more than 900million, and more than 170million highly educated and skilled human resources.
In the final analysis, the competition of comprehensive national strength in the world today is the competition of talents. Talents have increasingly become strategic resources to promote economic and social development. In recent years, the central government has vigorously implemented the strategy of strengthening the country with talents. Relevant departments, provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have successively launched a series of policies and measures to deepen the reform of talent development system and mechanism, promoted the reform of key areas and key links such as talent training, evaluation, mobility, introduction, use, distribution and incentive, and made significant progress in talent team building.
High skilled talents shine the smart business card of a large manufacturing country, scientific and technological R & D talents enhance the value level created by China, and the accumulation of talents in higher education and vocational education is a surging driving force for development. With the deepening of reform and the promotion of the talent development plan of the 14th five year plan, the vivid situation of "everyone aspires to become a talent, everyone works hard to become a talent, everyone can become a talent, and everyone can fully display their talents" can be expected.
The gurgling water of thousands of lines of work converges into the vast ocean of China's economy. The Chinese people work with one heart and are not afraid of any storm. They have the backing and confidence to overcome all difficulties and meet all challenges.
Strengthening the foundation
"Stability" is not passive waiting and inaction, but a bottom line, calm and tension; "progress" is not just to move forward, regardless of risk. Blind progress is often too quick to reach. "Stability" and "progress" need not only rules and regulations, but also the support of practical work and responsibility.
To achieve the economic growth target set this year, we must make greater and arduous efforts. For short-term shocks and fluctuations, we should suit the remedy to the case and solve difficulties; For the medium and long-term potential release, we should strengthen the foundation.
——To relieve the difficulties of enterprises and employment.
Only when employment is stable can residents' income and people's livelihood be guaranteed, social wealth be steadily increased and steady growth be supported. Small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are the main sources of employment. To relieve the difficulties of enterprises is to solve the difficulties of employment. Since the beginning of this year, we have implemented a package of relief and assistance policies for industries, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households seriously affected by the epidemic, especially tax rebates and reductions. The annual total will reach 2.64 trillion yuan. This is the "timely rain" for the market players and "offering fuel in snowy weather ". The key is that all policies should be taken forward, and all work should be accelerated. Whether it is tax rebate, tax reduction and fee reduction, the issuance and use of special bonds, the commencement of construction of key projects, financial assistance to the real economy, and support for enterprise job stabilization, the policies that have been issued should be implemented as soon as possible, and it is clear that the proposed policies should be introduced as early as possible to produce greater policy effects, so as to ensure that the economic operation in the first half of the year and the whole year is within a reasonable range, So that the economy can return to the normal track quickly. At the same time, efforts should be made to stabilize consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential; We should tap effective investment, make up for weak links and weaknesses in infrastructure and people's livelihood, and open up broader investment space.
——To solidify the foundation of the market and cultivate innovation.
Giving full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources and giving better play to the role of the government is an important experience in doing a good job in economic work in the new era. The practice of reform and opening up has proved that the development of any field that can properly handle the relationship between the government and the market and play a decisive role in the allocation of resources by the market under the guidance of national policies can be full of innovative vitality and various factors of production can be brought into full play. Fairness and justice is the guarantee of market vitality and social creativity. It is also a steelyard of market subjects' satisfaction with policies. The government is the guardian of fair and fair competition. In recent years, China has vigorously promoted the reform of "deregulation, management and service" and simplified administration with respect for the people, which has stimulated market vitality and social creativity. In the future, we should take advantage of the momentum to continue to deepen the reform of "deregulation, management and service", in terms of “deregulation”, we should standardize the administrative power, deepen the reform, reduce complexity and remove severity, and create a market-oriented, legal and international business environment; In terms of "management", we should pay close attention to clarifying transparent, stable and predictable regulatory rules, focus on the supervision of key areas that have a direct bearing on the safety of people's lives and property and the public interest, and strictly investigate and deal with illegal acts such as counterfeiting, deception, and infringement of intellectual property rights; In terms of "service", we should better take on the responsibilities of employment, education, medical care and elderly care, and do a good job in people's livelihood with our hearts and feelings.
——To strengthen the foundation of development and the body of the system.
A stable system means a stable country, and a strong system means a strong country. Resisting all risks and challenges with significant institutional advantages is the foundation for our party to unite and lead the people to create a miracle of rapid economic development and a miracle of long-term social stability rarely seen in the world. We should see that a more mature and stereotyped system is a dynamic process, and the modernization of governance capability is also a dynamic process. It cannot be achieved overnight or once and for all. It can be expected that with the comprehensive deepening of reform, China's national system and national governance system will consolidate its foundation, promote its advantages, complement its weaknesses and strengthen its strengths, and will certainly win greater comparative advantages in international competition and show more vigorous vitality. This is also a strategic advantage for China's development and progress, and an important guarantee for us to overcome all risks and challenges.
The policy toolbox has been opened, and many good policies and recipes have come into effect, aiming at one thing -our own business. We should unswervingly do our own things well and have the spirit of " Who but myself can do it ". For leading cadres at all levels, it is necessary to have a sense of responsibility to "always think", have a "big mind", be good at integrating the work of regions and departments into the overall situation of the party and the state, and organically combine political economy, macro and micro, and strategy and tactics, so as to achieve the overall situation in planning and meticulous and precise operation; For everyone, it is to keep moving forward for their dreams and create a better tomorrow with both hands. With President Xi’s Pilotage and orientation, with the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the unity and struggle of the people of the whole country, China's economy has the greatest confidence to move forward through the waves. There will be no insurmountable challenges and difficulties in our future.
If you go without stopping, you can expect thousands of miles. Towards the second Centennial goal, the "China" economic giant is chopping waves and sailing away!